Articles & Reports
The State Legislative Election Returns database
updated through the 2018 elections
is now available for purchase
State by State Analysis of Whether Non-Citizens Will be Excluded from Redistricting Population Counts
Here's a state by state run-down of the likelihood that eleven states will exclude non-citizens from population counts for the purpose of redistricting. These are the top eleven states in terms of how much the change would harm the Democrats in state legislatures, with at least a one percent loss of seats in each.
In summary, excluding non-citizens from districting population counts is unlikely to occur in these states by legislative action, with the possible exception of AZ. However, it may come about through the initiative in AZ, CO, FL, or NV.
Cleaning Digitized Election Data Efficiently
This 25 minute video
Gives numerous suggestions about how to clean data faster.
Discusses four strategies for cleaning data when sub-totals are reported.
Assesses two of these strategies with a simulation.
2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts:
October 30, 2018 Release
The forecasts here indicate that seven chambers will flip from red to blue in the upcoming election.
The ME & NY Senates are very likely to flip blue, while the AZ, CO, MI, NH, and NC Senates are essentially toss-ups. Among state houses, AZ, MI, NH and WV are all toss-ups.
2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts
Overview of my August 27, 2018 forecast
State Legislative Election Returns Database:
New Edition Overview
State Legislative Election Returns Database: Overview of Code That Restructures
Co-authored with Adam Chamberlain on "Stealth Partisan" Candidates: Democrats or Republicans who run on an Independent or Third Party Label.
Chamberlain, Adam, and Carl E. Klarner. 2016. “Spoilers?: Evaluating the Logic Behind Partisan Disaffiliation Requirements for Independent and Third-Party Candidates.” Election Law Journal. 15(December):330-350.
Analysis of the potential impact of the Evenwel V. Abbott.
Article about why I left my tenured position as an Associate Professor.
Optimizing State Legislative Election Forecasts
Conference paper assesses modeling improvements in forecasting model, and assesses the accuracy of my 2014 forecasts.
2014 Forecasts of State Legislative Elections
Describes my 2014 forecasts.
Klarner, Carl E. 2014. “Republicans Forecast to Win 5 State Senates and 9 State Houses.” The Washington Post: The Monkey Cage. October 31, 2014. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/31/republicans-forecast-to-win-5-state-senates-and-9-state-houses/
2012 Forecasts for Presidential, Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections
My forecasts for the 2012 presidential, U.S. House, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections at the state level, made on July 15, 2012. The 2013 document is an appraisal of how accurate the forecasts were.
Overcoming Fiscal Gridlock
Article about the determinants of late state budgets. The order of authors makes it look like I was the "primary author." Justin and I were both the primary authors, and Matt was my graduate student. But Justin was the driving force behind this article.
2010 State Legislative and Gubernatorial Forecasts
The forecasts presented in this article accurately called the unprecedented extent of Republican control of redistricting authority.
2010 District Level State Legislative Forecasts
District level 2010 state legislative election forecasts.
Forecasting Congressional Elections
Describes Congressional forecasting models and how expert judgments (such as by Rothenberg or the Cook Report) compare to these methods.
Why do Governors Issue More Vetoes?: The Impact of Individual and Institutional Influences
Forecasting the 2008 National Elections
Redistricting Principles and Racial Representation: A Reanalysis
Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the United States Senate
Accuracy of 2006 U.S. House of Representatives Forecast
Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives
Measurement of the Partisan Balance of State Government