2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts:
October 30, 2018 Release

The forecasts here indicate that seven chambers will flip from red to blue in the upcoming election.  

The ME & NY Senates are very likely to flip blue, while the AZ, CO, MI, NH, and NC Senates are essentially toss-ups.  Among state houses, AZ, MI, NH and WV are all toss-ups.  

Overview of my August 27, 2018 forecast

State Senates, 2018 Elections:Forecast Probability of Democratic Control

Percentages in each state indicate forecast probability Democrats will have a majority after the election. 

Circles shaded red to blue to reflect this percentage (truncated between 35 and 65%).  States red if currently Republican controlled, blue if Democratic. Chambers not up for election assigned 0 or 100%.  Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is colored red.  NY Senate takes IDC into account.  AK, HI, MA & RI omitted to make the map easier to take in.

State Senates, 2018 Elections:Forecast and Current Percent Legislators Democratic

Top number indicates forecast Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of circle (truncated between 35 and 65%).  Bottom number indicates current Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of state (truncated as above). Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is assigned a score of "25.“  AK, HI, MA & RI again omitted.

State Houses, 2018 Elections: Forecast Probability of Democratic Control

Percentages in each state indicate forecast probability Democrats will have a majority after the election. 

Circles shaded red to blue to reflect this percentage (truncated between 35 and 65%).  States red if currently Republican controlled, blue if Democratic. Chambers not up for election assigned 0 or 100%.  Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is colored red.  AK, HI, MA & RI again omitted.

State Houses, 2018 Elections: Forecast and Current Percent Legislators Democratic

Top number indicates forecast Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of circle (truncated between 35 and 65%).  Bottom number indicates current Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of state (truncated as above). Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is assigned a score of "25.“  AK, HI, MA & RI again omitted.

The district forecast table contains the district level forecasts made on October 30, 2018.  A more detailed version of this table (as well as a table with the August 27, 2018 forecasts) can be found on Harvard's Dataverse.

Chamber Forecasts

This table contains the chamber level forecasts made on October 30, 2018.  A more detailed version of this table (as well as a table with the August 27, 2018 forecasts) can be found on Harvard's Dataverse.  

© 2018 by KlarnerPolitics