2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts:
October 30, 2018 Release
The forecasts here indicate that seven chambers will flip from red to blue in the upcoming election.
The ME & NY Senates are very likely to flip blue, while the AZ, CO, MI, NH, and NC Senates are essentially toss-ups. Among state houses, AZ, MI, NH and WV are all toss-ups.
Overview of my August 27, 2018 forecast
State Senates, 2018 Elections:Forecast Probability of Democratic Control
Percentages in each state indicate forecast probability Democrats will have a majority after the election.
Circles shaded red to blue to reflect this percentage (truncated between 35 and 65%). States red if currently Republican controlled, blue if Democratic. Chambers not up for election assigned 0 or 100%. Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is colored red. NY Senate takes IDC into account. AK, HI, MA & RI omitted to make the map easier to take in.
State Senates, 2018 Elections:Forecast and Current Percent Legislators Democratic
Top number indicates forecast Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of circle (truncated between 35 and 65%). Bottom number indicates current Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of state (truncated as above). Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is assigned a score of "25.“ AK, HI, MA & RI again omitted.
State Houses, 2018 Elections: Forecast Probability of Democratic Control
Percentages in each state indicate forecast probability Democrats will have a majority after the election.
Circles shaded red to blue to reflect this percentage (truncated between 35 and 65%). States red if currently Republican controlled, blue if Democratic. Chambers not up for election assigned 0 or 100%. Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is colored red. AK, HI, MA & RI again omitted.
State Houses, 2018 Elections: Forecast and Current Percent Legislators Democratic
Top number indicates forecast Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of circle (truncated between 35 and 65%). Bottom number indicates current Democratic percentage of legislators, reflected by red to blue shading of state (truncated as above). Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but is assigned a score of "25.“ AK, HI, MA & RI again omitted.