Articles & Reports
The State Legislative Election Returns database
updated through the 2018 elections
is now available for purchase
State by State Analysis of Whether Non-Citizens Will be Excluded from Redistricting Population Counts
Here's a state by state run-down of the likelihood that eleven states will exclude non-citizens from population counts for the purpose of redistricting. These are the top eleven states in terms of how much the change would harm the Democrats in state legislatures, with at least a one percent loss of seats in each.
In summary, excluding non-citizens from districting population counts is unlikely to occur in these states by legislative action, with the possible exception of AZ. However, it may come about through the initiative in AZ, CO, FL, or NV.
Cleaning Digitized Election Data Efficiently
This 25 minute video
Gives numerous suggestions about how to clean data faster.
Discusses four strategies for cleaning data when sub-totals are reported.
Assesses two of these strategies with a simulation.
2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts:
October 30, 2018 Release
The forecasts here indicate that seven chambers will flip from red to blue in the upcoming election.
The ME & NY Senates are very likely to flip blue, while the AZ, CO, MI, NH, and NC Senates are essentially toss-ups. Among state houses, AZ, MI, NH and WV are all toss-ups.
2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts
Overview of my August 27, 2018 forecast
State Legislative Election Returns Database:
New Edition Overview
State Legislative Election Returns Database: Overview of Code That Restructures
Co-authored with Adam Chamberlain on "Stealth Partisan" Candidates: Democrats or Republicans who run on an Independent or Third Party Label.
Chamberlain, Adam, and Carl E. Klarner. 2016. “Spoilers?: Evaluating the Logic Behind Partisan Disaffiliation Requirements for Independent and Third-Party Candidates.” Election Law Journal. 15(December):330-350.
Analysis of the potential impact of the Evenwel V. Abbott.
Klarner, Carl E. 2015. “Assessing the Potential Impact of Evenwel v. Abbott.” (December 6, 2015) Available at SSRN:http://ssrn.com/abstract=2699850.
Article about why I left my tenured position as an Associate Professor.
Klarner, Carl E. 2016. “Forget This: Choosing to Leave Academia After Tenure.” PS: Political Science and Politics 47(July):518-520.
Klarner, Carl E. 2016. “Forget This: Choosing to Leave Academia After Tenure: Unpublished Supplement.” PS: Political Science and Politics 47(July):518-520.
Optimizing State Legislative Election Forecasts
Conference paper assesses modeling improvements in forecasting model, and assesses the accuracy of my 2014 forecasts.
Klarner, Carl E. 2014. “Optimizing State Legislative Election Forecasts,” presented at the annual meeting of the Northeast Political Science Association, Boston.
2014 Forecasts of State Legislative Elections
Describes my 2014 forecasts.
Klarner, Carl E. 2014. “Republicans Forecast to Win 5 State Senates and 9 State Houses.” The Washington Post: The Monkey Cage. October 31, 2014. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/31/republicans-forecast-to-win-5-state-senates-and-9-state-houses/
2012 Forecasts for Presidential, Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections
My forecasts for the 2012 presidential, U.S. House, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections at the state level, made on July 15, 2012. The 2013 document is an appraisal of how accurate the forecasts were.
Klarner, Carl E. 2012. “State-Level Forecasts of the 2012 Federal and Gubernatorial Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45(October):655-62.
Klarner, Carl E. 2013. “2012 Presidential, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate Forecasts.” PS: Political Science and Politics 44(January):44-45.
Overcoming Fiscal Gridlock
Article about the determinants of late state budgets. The order of authors makes it look like I was the "primary author." Justin and I were both the primary authors, and Matt was my graduate student. But Justin was the driving force behind this article.
Klarner, Carl E., Justin Phillips, and Mathew Muckler. 2012. “Overcoming Fiscal Gridlock: Institutions and Budget Bargaining.” Journal of Politics 74(October):992-1022.
2010 State Legislative and Gubernatorial Forecasts
The forecasts presented in this article accurately called the unprecedented extent of Republican control of redistricting authority.
Klarner, Carl E. 2010. “Forecasting Control of State Governments and Redistricting Authority After the 2010 Elections.” The Forum 8(3), Article 14.
2010 District Level State Legislative Forecasts
District level 2010 state legislative election forecasts.
Klarner, Carl E. 2010. “Forecasting the 2010 State Legislative Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 43(October):643-48.
Klarner, Carl E. 2011. “Postmortems of the 2010 Midterm Election Forecasts: Assessing the 2010 State Legislative Election Forecasting Models.” PS: Political Science and Politics 42(January):5-6.
Forecasting Congressional Elections
Describes Congressional forecasting models and how expert judgments (such as by Rothenberg or the Cook Report) compare to these methods.
Klarner, Carl E. 2009. “Forecasting Congressional Elections.” Extensions: Legislative Studies Section Newsletter (January)
Why do Governors Issue More Vetoes?: The Impact of Individual and Institutional Influences
Klarner, Carl E., and Andrew C. Karch. 2008. “Why do Governors Issue More Vetoes?: The Impact of Individual and Institutional Influences.” Political Research Quarterly 61(December):574-84.
Forecasting the 2008 National Elections
Klarner, Carl E. 2008. “Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate, and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level.” PS: Political Science and Politics 39(October):723-28.
Klarner, Carl E. 2009. “Assessing the Accuracy of the 2008 State and District Forecast Models.” PS: Political Science and Politics 40(January):23-25.
Redistricting Principles and Racial Representation: A Reanalysis
Klarner, Carl E. 2007. “Redistricting Principles and Racial Representation: A Reanalysis.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 7(Fall):298-302.
Klarner, Carl E. 2007. “Redistricting Principles and Racial Representation: A Reanalysis.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 7(Fall):298-302: Unpublished Supplement.
Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the United States Senate
Klarner, Carl E., and Stan Buchanan. 2006. “Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the United States Senate.” PS: Political Science and Politics 39(October): 849-55.
Accuracy of 2006 U.S. House of Representatives Forecast
Klarner, Carl E., and Stan Buchanan. 2007. “Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives.” Foresight (March):45-50.
Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives
Klarner, Carl E., and Stan Buchanan. 2006. “Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.” PS: Political Science and Politics 39(October): 857-61.
Measurement of the Partisan Balance of State Government
Klarner, Carl E. 2003. “Measurement of the Partisan Balance of State Government.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 3 (Fall): 309-19.